October 2019 Supply and Demand Report

October 2019 Supply and Demand Report

WHEAT: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced total use, and rising ending stocks. Wheat production is cut 18.5 million bushels to 1,962 million based on the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 30. Projected imports are lowered 15 million bushels to 120 million on a slow pace to date. The NASS Grain Stocks report raised 2018/19 ending stocks 8 million bushels and estimated first quarter 2019/20 stocks at 2,385 million bushels, down fractionally from the previous year. These stocks imply first quarter feed and residual use is similar to last year. Annual 2019/20 feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels to 140 million but remain above last year’s revised 89.8 million. Wheat exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 950 million on reduced competitiveness in international markets. Ending stocks are projected at 1,043 million bushels, up 29 million from the previous month, and the season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.70.

Global 2019/20 wheat supplies are raised fractionally with decreased production offset by higher beginning stocks. World production is lowered 0.3 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton cut to Australia’s crop on further drought effects. The United States is lowered 0.5 million tons, and Canada and Serbia are each reduced 0.3 million tons. Partly offsetting are production increases of 1.0 million tons for the EU and 0.7 million tons for Turkmenistan, both on updated harvest reports. Projected global exports for 2019/20 are lowered 1.2 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Australia reflecting their smaller crop. Total imports are decreased 1.1 million tons with the United States, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, and Kyrgyzstan accounting for most of the decline. World wheat consumption is reduced 1.1 million tons primarily on a 0.8-million-ton reduction in U.S. feed and residual use. With supplies rising and use declining, global ending stocks are raised 1.3 million tons to a record 287.8 million.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly lower production, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, greater feed and residual use, and lower ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.779 billion bushels, down 20 million as a decline in harvested area more than offsets an increased yield forecast. Corn supplies are forecast down sharply from last month on a reduced crop and lower beginning stocks based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Exports are reduced 150 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and U.S. price competitiveness. Corn used for ethanol is down 50 million bushels based on weekly production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration during September. Projected feed and residual use is up 125 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2018/19. Corn ending stocks for 2019/20 are lowered 261 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 20 cents to $3.80 per bushel.

Grain sorghum production is forecast lower from last month, with a 0.4-bushel-per-acre decline in yield to 73.9 bushels per acre and a reduction in harvested area. Barley and oat production estimates are updated based on the September 30 Small Grains report. Global coarse grain production for 2019/20 is forecast virtually unchanged at 1,396.7 million tons. The 2019/20 foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, increased trade, and higher stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast modestly lower as an increase for Russia is more than offset by declines for Egypt and Syria. The projected corn yield for Russia is raised based on reported harvest results to date. Corn exports are raised for Russia, with a more than offsetting decline for the United States. For 2018/19, corn exports for Brazil are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2019 based on record large shipments during the month of September. From July to September Brazil has exported close to 20 million tons of corn, nearly 50 percent above the previous high for the time period, with large shipments to important U.S. markets such as Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Colombia. For 2019/20, corn imports are lowered for Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, and Bangladesh. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Brazil, Canada, and the EU. Global corn stocks, at 302.6 million, are down 3.7 million from last month.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2019/20 is projected at 107.9 million tons, down 2.3 million from last month with lower soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production partly offset by higher canola and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is forecast at 3.6 billion bushels, down 83 million, mainly on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected at 46.9 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from the September forecast. Harvested area is reduced slightly to 75.6
million acres. Soybean supplies for 2019/20 are forecast at 4.5 billion bushels down 175 million on lower production and beginning stocks. With a small increase in soybean crush, ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 180 million.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $9.00 per bushel, up 50 cents reflecting smaller supplies. The soybean meal price is forecast at $325.00 per short
ton, up $20.00. The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 30.0 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 2019/20 is projected at 574.8 million tons, down 4.6 million from last month on lower soybean, sunflowerseed, rapeseed, and peanut production. Global soybean production is projected at 339.0 million tons, down 2.4 million to a 4-year low, mainly reflecting lower production for the United States. Global rapeseed production is forecast lower on reductions for Canada, Australia, the EU, and the United States. Canadian rapeseed production is reduced on lower yield prospects resulting from an unseasonably heavy snow and a season-ending freeze. Other production changes include lower sunflowerseed production for Ukraine, lower cottonseed production for Pakistan and Brazil, and higher cottonseed production for India. With lower global oilseed supplies only partly offset by reduced crush, global oilseed stocks are projected at 109.8 million tons, down 4.6 million. Soybeans account for most of the change with lower stocks in the United States only partly offset by increases for Argentina and Brazil.

SUGAR: Beet sugar production for 2019/20 is projected at 5.055 million short tons, raw value (STRV), up 50,000 on less expected production for September of 2018/19 now expected to be produced during 2019/20. Beet sugar production for 2018/19 is correspondingly reduced by 50,000 STRV to 4.907 million.

Raw sugar TRQ imports for the 2018/19 quota year eligible for entry until October 15 are estimated at 1.141 million STRV, implying a shortfall of 57,088. The amount of this sugar entered by September 30 was 24,018 STRV less than expected last month; 22,046 STRV of it is now projected to enter in October. Expected imports of 17,907 STRV corresponding to calendar year FTA TRQs are shifted from the July-September quarter to the October December quarter and into the 2019/20 fiscal year. Re-export imports for 2018/19 are estimated at 437,682 STRV, up 17,682 over last month. High-tier tariff imports are estimated at 92,679 STRV, up 2,679 over last month.

Deliveries for human consumption for 2018/19 are decreased by 50,000 STRV to 12.125 million based on a slower-than-expected pace. Corresponding deliveries for 2019/20 are decreased in line by the same amount. Ending stocks for 2018/19 are estimated at 1.725 million STRV for a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.04 percent. Ending stocks for 2019/20 are projected at 1.784 million STRV for a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.52 percent. For 2018/19, Mexico sugar deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 95,977 metric tons, actual weight (MT) to 4.140 million based on the slow pace through the end of August reported by CONADESUCA. Deliveries to IMMEX are likewise reduced by 55,000 MT to 425,000. Exports are increased 14,203 MT based on CONADESUCA reporting. Imports, mainly for IMMEX, are increased by 16,189 MT. Ending stocks are residually estimated at 1.148 million MT of which an estimated 273,168 are required to be exported in 2019/20 before December 31 per provisions administered by the Fideicomiso Maestro para la Expor ación de Excedentes de los Ingenios (FIMAE). For 2019/20, Mexico sugar production is projected at 6.065 million MT, a reduction of 135,000 based on updated reports of the severity of drought conditions in several producing areas. Total sweetener deliveries are projected at 5.719 million MT based on the same per capita sweetener consumption from 2018/19 multiplied by the expected increase in population. Deliveries of high fructose corn syrup are projected at 1.520 million MT, dry weight, implying sugar deliveries of 4.199 million MT. Ending stocks are at 963,373 MT, an amount meant to meet consumption for a 2.5 month period before the start of the next harvest campaign. Exports are residually projected at 1.695 million MT, an increase of 201,607 over last month. Exports to the United States are unchanged from last month at 956,738 MT.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2019 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, as higher broiler production more than offsets slightly lower beef and turkey production. Pork production is unchanged. Hatchery and slaughter data supports an increase in broiler production. Beef production is reduced from the previous month on a slower-than-expected pace of fed cattle slaughter. The turkey forecast is lowered on a slower pace of third-quarter production. The 2019 egg production forecast is raised slightly.
For 2020, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month on higher expected pork and broiler production. Beef production is unchanged for the year, although a slower pace of placements in third-quarter 2019 is expected to result in lower first-quarter beef production, but higher second quarter production. Pork production is forecast higher, as expected growth in pigs per litter points toward increased availability of slaughter hogs in 2020. The broiler production forecast is raised from the previous month on expectations of continued expansion of broiler flocks. Turkey production forecasts are reduced from the previous month on higher feed prices. The egg production forecast is raised, largely reflecting increased hatching egg production.

The 2019 beef import forecast is unchanged, but exports are reduced, reflecting recent trade data. For 2020, imports are reduced, reflecting tighter supplies from Oceania and strong demand for beef by competing importers. Exports are raised on firm global demand and tightness in supplies from Oceania. The 2019 and 2020 pork export forecasts are raised from the previous month on recent trade data and strong demand U.S. pork products. The 2019 broiler export forecast is lowered, reflecting recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2020 export forecast. Turkey trade export forecasts are raised.

The cattle price forecast for 2019 is raised on current price strength; this increase in price strength was carried into early 2020. Hog price forecasts are reduced for 2019 and 2020 on larger supplies of hogs. The 2019 broiler price forecast is raised on recent price strength but is reduced for 2020 as broiler meat supplies are raised. The 2019 turkey price forecast is higher on recent gains in prices, but the 2020 forecast is unchanged. The 2019 egg price forecast is lowered on current prices, but 2020 egg price forecasts are unchanged. Milk production forecasts for 2019 are raised on higher cow numbers and stronger growth in milk per cow. For 2020, expected continued gains in milk per cow supported an increase in the milk production forecast.

Annual forecasts of imports on both a fat and skims-solids basis are unchanged for 2019 reflecting current trade data, but forecasts for 2020 are lowered as the recently announced additional tariffs on a number of EU dairy products are expected to result in reduced imports. Fat basis export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are reduced from last month on continued competitive pressure on U.S. cheese exports. The 2019 skim-solids basis export forecast is lowered on weaker expected exports of cheese and skim and nonfat dry milk (SMP/NDM). However, increased strength in SMP/NDM sales in 2020 due to strong global demand is expected to more than offset continued weakness in cheese exports. The 2020 skim-solids basis export forecast is raised.

For 2019, cheese and NDM prices are raised from the previous month, but price forecasts for butter and whey are reduced. The Class III price is raised from last month as the higher cheese price more than offsets the lower whey price; the Class IV price is raised as the higher NDM price more than offsets the lower butter price. For 2020, cheese and NDM prices are raised from the previous month, but the price forecast for butter is reduced. The whey price is unchanged. As a result, the Class III price forecast is higher, but the Class IV price is lowered, as the higher NDM price is more than offset by the lower butter price. The 2019 all milk price is forecast higher at $18.40; for 2020 the price is unchanged at $18.85 per cwt.

COTTON: The 2019/20 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show slightly lower production and ending stocks compared with last month. Production is lowered less than 1 percent, to 21.7 million bales, largely the result of a reduction in Texas. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged from last month, and ending stocks are reduced 200,000 bales. At 7.0 million bales, U.S. ending stocks in 2019/20 are projected at 36 percent of use, compared with 27 percent in 2018/19. The 2019/20 season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 58 cents per pound, unchanged from last month and 12.5 cents lower than in 2018/19.

The 2019/20 global cotton supply and demand forecasts show little overall change from last month. World production is 130,000 bales lower as declines for Brazil, Pakistan, Australia, and the United States more than offset a 1-million-bale increase in India. Global consumption is 130,000 bales lower than September’s forecast and the projection for world trade in 2019/20 is reduced 300,000 bales. Lower expected imports for China and Vietnam more than offset increases for Pakistan and Turkey. Exports for Australia and Brazil are also lower. World ending stocks in 2019/20 are now forecast at 83.7 million bales.

Source: USDA OCE