The all-items Consumer Price Index increased 1.4 percent from May to June and is 9.1 percent higher than in June of last year. USDA once again raised its consumer food price inflation forecast from 8.5 percent to 9.5 percent for 2022.
In their first forecast for next year, USDA says inflation will slow to a range between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent. That’s more in line with the 20-year historical average increase for consumer food prices, which is 2.4 percent per year.
The 8.5-9.5 percent rise between 2021 and 2022 is the biggest increase in overall food price inflation since 1979 when prices rose 11 percent.
The biggest increase was in the fats and oils category, now forecast to rise 16.5-17.5 percent this year compared to 2021.
Poultry, dairy, and cereals-bakery goods are other categories with large price increases. Food at home price is now forecast at 11 percent higher in 2022.