There are varying reports out of Iowa about how much of the crop has been flattened from last week’s derecho. Karl Setzer of AgriVisor, said there’s a big difference between affected acres and acres lost.
“There are a lot of acres that are affected, but how many are destroyed and how many will not get harvested?” said Setzer. “That is the huge unknown, and we won’t know that until we get to probably October or November.”
He said that number might not show up until the final crop report in January. USDA will have those acres resurveyed. If there’s an adjustment that needs to be made, it will be made in the September USDA supply and demand report.
“That data starts to be collected next week, so to not see a big change in September still wouldn’t be too surprising,” he said. “I want to tell farmers don’t focus on the acres affected, focus on the bushels affected, focus on the production. Some of these acres that were affected by that storm will be harvested.”
Satellite imagery combined with field data is showing that at max, 300 million bushels of lost production. With an old crop to new crop estimated increase of 130 million bushels, Setzer said that carryout will still be higher.
“The big reaction won’t come until we get new crop carryout below old crop levels,” he said.
Setzer talks more about weather, protein markets and factors impacting the soybean trade in his full comments above.