Cold air is not much of a story in this round of planting weather discussion. However, we are not seeing ample fieldwork windows in the near term. Most of that will be due to precipitation.
The weekend will start dry in lower Michigan. Temps will be above normal. Rain will be limited to the UP. Scattered showers move into lower MI Saturday evening and then rain continues through Sunday with thunderstorms a times early Sunday morning. Rain totals out of that wave of moisture look to be .25”-1.5” over 80% of the state. Moisture ends mid to late afternoon. Monday brings another round of showers producing .25”-1.5”. This time the thunderstorms are limited to far south and SW MI. Only a few scattered showers in the west to start Tuesday, and the rest of the day stays dry with sun and warm air. The map below shows precipitation potential now through next Tuesday evening.
Now, the second half of the week gets interesting. As it stands, action late week stays to our south. If that holds, we can put together our only significant back to back dry window in the Wednesday through Sunday time frame. We look to be sunny, warm and dry all five days with temps above normal and good evaporation. Showers will begin threatening next Sunday afternoon from the west.
Next week will give some threat of showers coming out of the Sunday overnight period into Monday morning. Rain totals look to be .25”-.75” with coverage at 60%. Then we can see some sunshine on Monday afternoon and most of Tuesday. The upstream pattern to the west and northwest looks drier. However, most of the precipitation this week will be coming from a very active sub-tropical jet stream to our south, and if that stays active, that may override our normal west to east flow pattern and keep us wetter. Stay tuned.
The extended 11-16 day forecast period features a cold front sagging through next Tuesday night (5/16) that brings .1”-.6” over about 70% of the Great Lakes region. Behind that we cool slightly but should stay fully dry with excellent evaporation for the 17th all the way through early the 21st. A strong low and frontal complex will be developing in the northern plains and upper Midwest for Sunday the 21st, and we likely will need to watch for showers and storms later that day and to start the week of the 22nd.
The weather pattern looks pretty benign in the super long term this week. Weeks 3 and 4 both look to be normal to slightly below normal on precipitation and then normal to somewhat below normal on temperatures. While not ideal on temps, the level below normal that we are does not suggest problems with emergence, as long as we get long enough windows to put crops in the ground here in May.
Week 3 Precipitation (Green = above normal, Brown = below)
Week 3 Temperatures (yellow/orange = above normal, blue = below)
Week 4 Precipitation (Green = above normal, Brown = below)
Week 4 Temperatures (yellow/orange = above normal, blue = below)