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Planting Forecast: Significant Change in Weather Pattern Coming

MAT big planting mapA front finally cleared the eastern Corn Belt late Friday, and behind it we see significant changes in our weather pattern, at least for a few days. Much cooler air is sagging into the state for the weekend, and we will slowly build back higher for our temps from there. In addition to the cooler air, we are working through a big drop in humidity, and a much drier pattern.

We will see this right onto into the first day of June. Sunshine will be the key feature each day, and temps will be pushing 10 degrees or more below normal for the region. Sunday likely is the coolest day. Monday will start to see clouds build.

Overnight Monday night and Tuesday showers rip through Michigan. We expect rain totals to be from .1”-.5” with coverage at nearly 100% of the lower peninsula.

The bulk of the action will be in the overnight Monday night, but we wont rule out a few lingering showers Tuesday morning and midday. Better sunshine potential emerges late Tuesday afternoon.

A weak trough moves through the eastern corn belt Wednesday, but it stays well south of us. We are keeping sunshine and dry air in our forecast for the balance of the week Wednesday forward.

We finish the 10 day period with a warmer surge again. Temps climb to above normal levels for next Friday, Saturday and Sunday. We are dry, but humid those days. Evaporation will be good and drying should be fully underway.

The map below shows temperature departures from normal for next Sunday afternoon.

Extended Period:

The extended period continues that warm, dry pattern for the most part. We have to watch for a minor front to try and set temps back a bit round the afternoon of the 8th into the 9th, but most of the moisture associated with that change in airmass appears to be less than .25”, with 75% coverage. Heat builds again the rest of the 11-16 day window, with the next chance of moisture coming on the 13th with .25” or less again over 60% of the state.

Weeks 3 & 4:

We expect a very dry week 3 period, with a good chance of no significant moisture from the 14th through the 20th. Temps will continue to average a good 4-8 degrees above normal. Week 4 has a front early to midweek for the week of the 21st, but will likely have .25”-.75” potential, enough to get us near to slightly below normal for precipitation that week. Temps remain warm, but a little less so on average thanks to clouds and moisture from that early week front.

 

Week 3

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

MAT Week 3 Precip

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)

 MAT Week 3 Temp

 

Week 4

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

MAT Week 4 Precip

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)

MAT Week 4 Temp