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Planting Forecast: Active Weather Pattern to Continue Through the Week

Hopes of a drier window for Michigan were not able to materialize for a large part of Michigan. While we may not have picked up as much moisture through the week as some of our neighbors to the south and southeast, “drying” was not something we saw happen quickly either. The active weather pattern looks to continue through most of this week, but we have move to drier weather in the extended outlook.

Saturday remains dry for most of Michigan. Expect a mix of clouds and sun and temps will push higher, getting closer to and slightly above normal. We feel this is a short lived event, though. Early Sunday morning, showers move into the state, and we have a chance of scattered showers all day Sunday. In fact, we have a chance of rain in the forecast every day from Sunday through next Saturday, to varying degrees.

Through Sunday we can see .1”-.5” with 60% statewide coverage. Monday scattered showers bring a few hundredths to .25″ with 80% coverage. Tuesday showers bring a few hundredths to .3″ and 40% coverage. Both of those days, if and when not raining, we still see clouds and some sun, but generally not many “full sun” period. Evaporation will be slow to nearly non-existent. Wednesday showers and thunderstorms produce .25″-1″ over 100% of Lower Michigan. That rain and thunderstorm action continues Thursday with an additional .3”-1.5”, again with 100% of Lower Michigan seeing rain.

Friday we start to see clearing from NW to SE, but not before picking up another potential .25”-.75” over the southern half or third of the state. Saturday does turn out partly sunny, and gives us our first dry day of the week. We stay dry Sunday. But still, the damage will be done by then.  Combined 10 day rain totals will end up at 1 “-2.5” over 80% of Michigan, and up to 1” over the remaining 20%. The map below shows our potential 10 day rain totals. This will not allow for much field work, and minimal drying. Ugh.

MAT big planting map

Extended Period:

The extended period does look to swing drier. Cooler air and a strong high pressure dome coming in from the west and northwest next weekend, and that pattern continues through most of the first week of June.  Chances of moisture at midweek next week seem to be focusing a little farther west, and we hold on to hope that they fall apart. But for now we will leave the out of the forecast and  we will continue to watch the period from the 4th through the 6th to see where the track ends up. So, we look for potential for Michigan to stay dry from the 30th through June 7th. Keeping fingers crossed.

Weeks 3 & 4:

Dryness continues into weeks three and four. One system late in the week of the 7th brings up to half an inch, then we could e dry for all of the week of the 14th. Precipitation well below normal. It will be warm with well above normal temps in week 3, meaning that front during that week likely features strong thunderstorms. Then temps cool to near normal for week four behind the front.

Week 3

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

MAT Week 3 Precip

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)

 MAT Week 3 Temp

 

Week 4

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

MAT Week 4 Precip

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)

MAT Week 4 Temp

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