Harvest Weather Forecast: Iffy Harvest Possibilities Despite Sunshine, Warm Temps Over Weekend

We get this week’s harvest forecast off to a slow start, as we still will find ourselves dealing with clouds over most of Michigan for Saturday. WE may not see any significant new precipitation, but lingering clouds and the occasional sprinkle will delay drying in the short term. Better sunshine tries to break free for Sunday, with very summer-like temps expected over most of Lower MI. However, a weak low pressure area pushes over the UP and into Ontario, keeping clouds for most areas there and reviving a chance of scattered showers that amount to .25” or less. Monday looks similar, with full sunshine, warm air, and decent drying over Lower MI, but clouds and a few showers lingering in the UP with 40% coverage.

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A cold front moves in for the evening and overnight Monday into Tuesday. That front brings rain and the occasional thunderstorm to the state. Rain totals will be a few hundredths to .7” with coverage at 80%. We see clouds break for sun late Tuesday and we start to dry overnight.

Wednesday and Thursday both turn out mostly sunny and warm, but not as warm as the temps we start the week off with. Humidity values will drop a bit, and we expect good evaporation.

Our second front for the week arrives overnight Thursday night and will keep us under some form of rain threat until the pre-dawn hours Saturday morning. Rain totals through the period look to be .1”-.75” with coverage at 70%. IF we do not see any weakening of the two fronts we have on the way this week, we can see combined week totals of rain over MI of .25”-1”, which are shown on the map at right. That last front on Friday ushers in cooler air with temps near normal for next weekend. We Look for sunshine to dominate Saturday through Monday the 18^th

Extended Period:

The extended forecast is encouraging. Most of the 11-16 day window is fully dry, dominated by high pressure. There is one potential hiccup, and it happens early on, late the 19^th into the 20^th. Models are in disagreement, but we need to watch the western Gulf of Mexico. There may be a tropical system that tries to move up into LA and the lower MS River area….and if its strong enough that moisture can streak up from the south into parts of IL, IN and even southern lower MI. Its hard to put a finger on that, as tropical systems are tough to pinpoint even 4-5 days out…let alone almost 2 weeks. So, confidence is low, but we need to watch it. IF that southern surge does not materialize, we will be able to look for a dry window all the way from the 16^th through the 25^th.

Weeks 3 & 4

Precipitation for week 3 will turn out nearly normal but we see a slightly wetter outlook in week 4 , particularly in western Lower MI. That means we can see at least one threat of moisture or a front in week 3, but we can see a little more persistent moisture in week 4, potentially coming with a couple of waves exiting the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile temps stay warm. Much above normal for week 3, backing of to only 1-2 degrees above normal for week 4.

Week 3

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)