Harvest Forecast: Touch and Go, More Cold Air

Touch and go for harvest through the state over the next 10 days. With the colder air racing into the area after this most recent system, all of a sudden we have to start dealing with more issues regarding location, mostly the formation of clouds and precipitation thanks to the lakes.

Saturday will be one of those days. We will find ourselves dealing with lake clouds and snow over a large part of the state through the day. The moisture equivalent will not be huge, but it is new moisture falling from time to time on top of the generous portions we received a few days back. So, no new drying for the start of the weekend. WE should be drier on Sunday, at least of over the southern half of Lower Michigan, as winds start to shift more southwest. Then we get some sunshine and dry weather for Monday and temps moderate.

Clouds come back Monday afternoon, and we have to leave the door open for a few scattered rain and/or snow showers Monday evening and overnight through Tuesday and Wednesday. Daily moisture totals look minor again, but may yield a few hundredths to .25” totals each period with coverage at around 60% of Michigan each day. Again, not a lot of moisture, but we surely will not see any drying.

Much colder air returns behind that trough for next Thursday and Friday, with lake effect snow potential along the western edge of Michigan. Our temps will be well below normal. However, we have taken major moisture out of our forecast, as there is not a well-organized front or system moving toward the region. That will lead to a drier finish to the week outside of the lake effect, which should be limited in scope. Saturday and Sunday remain dry as well. Combined 10-day moisture totals are at right.

Extended Period:

Scattered showers Monday the 11^th into Tuesday the 12^th bring .1”-.4” with 80% coverage. Then a mix of clouds and sun for the balance of the 11-16 day period with colder air, and some hit and miss showers. No more than a few hundredths to a tenth combined, and coverage at 40%, but that kind of set up signals that drying may be a little slow as well. No well-organized systems, just an atmosphere that is a little unsettled.

Weeks 3 & 4:

The drier pattern that we see emerge toward the end of the extended period continues into week 3. We may see only a small frontal passage in that time, but temps stay cool. Week 4 gives a slight uptick in moisture, fueled by temps that climb back to above normal levels.

Week 3

Precipitation, week ending November 23 (green: above normal, brown: below)