Harvest Forecast: Rain Early In The Week Before Sunny, Dry Conditions Return

Dry to start this harvest forecast period Saturday through Monday morning. Temps remain above normal with full sunshine Saturday and Sunday. After sun to start Monday, clouds increase quickly

Monday our next cold front arrives from the west and north. Rains arrive Monday afternoon and continue through the evening. Rain totals will be .25”-.5” with 100% coverage over MI.

Partly to mostly sunny conditions in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps stay normal to slightly above normal and we should see good evaporation. Harvest should be able to ramp back up in that window in many areas.

Our second front for the week comes through Thursday. This front sagging more north to southeast. There is little moisture with it now…only a few hundredths to .3 with 60% coverage. However, the bigger story is the change in air mass that comes behind it. Temps will be significantly cooler. We expect below normal temps for next Friday, Saturday and Sunday. In that cooler air mass, clouds dominate more, and we cant rule out a second batch of light moisture Saturday night through Sunday that bring an additional .1”-.5” to about 70% of the state. The map below shows combined rain totals for the 10 day window…nothing here that screams “long term delay, with the heaviest totals far north.

Extended Period:

The extended 11-16 day forecast period is cool for the first 4-5 days. WE expect below normal temps to continue through at least Friday the 23^rd. We should see mostly dry weather in that window though, with satisfactory drying. Skies will be at least partly sunny for most of that week of the 19^th. A minor disturbance lifts north into IL and parts of IN Friday night (23^rd) into Saturday the 24^th. This will bring a few hundredths to .3”to southern MI with 70% coverage. But it will also bring warmer air in too, as temps climb to above normal levels for that weekend of the 245h-25^th. But the cold front circulates through for the afternoon of the 25^th, bringing potential for .5”-1.5” rains over 90% of the state.

Weeks 3 & 4:

After several weeks of the far extended period looking warm and dry, we are seeing temps break just a bit and seeing a bit more moisture potential. For week three, temps pull back to near normal, likely on the cold air that dominates our 11-16 day window running forward into the following week. We also see near normal moisture, thanks to a strong front right there at the start of the week three period (coming out of the extended forecast period above). For week 4, we stay near normal on precip, but see warming temps for the first week of November.

Week 3

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)