Harvest Forecast: Dry Pattern to Break with Front Bringing Rain, Cooler Temps

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Dry for this weekend. While we may deal with some early Saturday clouds over northern Lower MI from a dying overnight disturbance, we should be able to expect good sunshine and above normal temps in most areas for the entire weekend, and also building humidity. South winds should be strong Sunday. The dry warm pattern extends into the start of Monday.

Moisture starts to build up from the south into Indiana Monday but runs out of gas as it approaches the Michigan line. We will have to be on the lookout for a few showers in far south central and southwest counties late Monday afternoon and evening, but those will be limited to 30% coverage and a few tenths or less.

Our chance for significant moisture comes as a cold front moves in from the west for Tuesday, leaving slowly and dragging moisture into most of Wednesday as well. Rain totals will likely run from .25”-1” over all of lower MI, but stay at a few hundredths to a few tenths in the UP. We expect 100% coverage over lower Michigan, but only 40% coverage in the UP. All moisture is gone by late afternoon and evening Wednesday. Rain potential is shown on the map at right from this event

Cooler air comes in behind the front for Thursday and Friday. However, this air mas is not as cold as was advertised earlier this past week. We look for temps to be below normal, but we expect full sunshine in the wake of the front which will help to moderate the cool air. We stay partly to mostly sunny through next weekend but can’t call the region fully dry. We have to watch out for a minor disturbance, mostly based in Ontario and over Lake Huron, coming through next Saturday night, bringing clouds and the potential for showers to eastern areas and the northern Thumb from sunset Saturday through sunrise Sunday the 26^th. Rain totals will be half an inch or less and will be contained to the areas mentioned. Monday the 27^th finishes the 10 day window and starts that week with Sunny to partly cloudy skies and additional drying.

Extended Period:

Dry weather rolls on for the first half of the extended 11-16 day window. A strong cold front takes aim at the Great Lakes and Michigan head on for Thursday the 30^th. This will bring rains of .25”-1” to 100% of the state. All action is gone by sunrise Friday the 1^st. call. We are cooler behind that front with a lot of wrap around clouds for the first few days in October. Moisture is not impressive, but I think we have to expect a chance of a few showers for Saturday the 2^nd and Sunday the 3^rd to go along with well below normal temps. Lows that weekend could be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Weeks 3 & 4:

Week 3 looks to be normal to below normal on precipitation, with likely only 1 good threat of moisture. Week 4 will see a couple threats of rain, and as such may put us in to the normal to wetter than normal camp, especially in southern Indiana. Temps both weeks look to continue the above normal pattern we have seen over most of the month of September. So, we are expecting to shake of those cooler temps that we see in the first weekend of October and continue to keep the overall growing season going easily into mid-October, and likely beyond.

Week 3

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)