Harvest Forecast: A Cold Start

Harvest Forecast: A Cold Start

MICHIGANforecast templateA very cold start to our harvest forecast, with frost and freeze conditions over a large part of Michigan. The strong low responsible for this massive winter storm (out west) has been slow to leave the area, and as it drags across Ontario Sunday, we expect to see some clouds rotate through the region and a batch of scattered light rain and snow showers up north over the northern half of Michigan. The clouds will keep a lid on temperatures for Sunday. Monday should be sunny, and a little milder.

Showers are back for Tuesday afternoon and evening with a surge of warmer air from the SW. WE have a chance for a few hundredths to half an inch with coverage at 60% of Michigan. Colder air comes in behind the front again, with a lot of clouds. Frost and freeze conditions will again be the norm.

Sunny and dry for most of the rest of this week, Thursday through early Saturday. Colder air will be in play again to start the period, but temperatures warm considerably toward the end. A significant cold front for the weekend. That front has potential of .25”-1.5” rains over the region, but should be gone by Sunday, if current pace stays on track. General totals can be more like ,25”-1”. Coverage will be nearly 100% of the state. After an early shower Monday, we turn drier for the rest of the day. The map below shows 10 day rain totals through next Sunday.

MAT big forecast

Extended Period:

For the extended 11-16 day period, we keep the drier pattern going for Tuesday the 22nd through Saturday the 26th. Temps stay normal to below, and in fact will be quite cool the last 3 days of the period. We have to watch for our next frontal boundary arrival later the 27th into the 28th

Weeks 3 & 4:

Week three trends drier after that front early on (27th-28th). Then week 4 shows 2 system coming through, leading to a wetter outlook for the first week of November.

Week 3

Precipitation, week ending November 2 (green: above normal, brown: below)

MAT week 3 precip

Temperature, Week ending November 2 (orange: above normal, blue: below)
MAT week 3 temp

Week 4

Precipitation, Week ending November 9 (green: above normal, brown: below)

MAT week 4 precip

Temperature, Week ending November 9 (orange: above normal, blue: below)

MAT week 4 temp

 

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