The USDA’s Economic Research Service says net cash farm income, defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, is forecast to increase by $36.5 billion, or 25 percent, from 2024 to $180.7 billion in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars.
Meanwhile, U.S. net farm income is forecast to increase by $48.8 billion, or 37 percent, to $179.8 billion in 2025. Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates non-cash items like changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income.
Most of the projected increase in 2025 corresponds with higher direct government payments to farmers, projected to increase from $10.4 billion in 2024 to $40.5 billion in 2025. The increase is expected largely because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance for farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025, which authorized economic assistance payments to producers and payments for losses in 2023 and 2024.
The average net cash farm income for farm businesses is forecast to increase 12.0 percent from 2024 to $127,000 per farm in 2025 in nominal terms. Farm businesses are farms with annual gross cash farm income (GCFI)—annual income before expenses—of at least $350,000 or operations with less than $350,000 in annual GCFI but that report farming as the operator’s primary occupation.
Eight out of the nine USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Farm Resource Regions are expected to see average net cash farm income rise in 2025 relative to 2024. Farm businesses located in the Mississippi Portal region are projected to see the largest dollar increase while those in the Heartland region are projected to see average net cash income decline. When grouped by commodity specialization, farm businesses specializing in animal/animal products are generally forecast to see higher average net cash farm income in 2025 while the outlook for those specializing in crops is mixed.
On the farm sector balance sheet, equity is expected to increase by $170.8 billion (4.7 percent) from 2024 to $3.83 trillion in 2025 in nominal terms. Farm sector assets are forecast to increase by $199.1 billion (4.7 percent) to $4.42 trillion in 2025 following an expected increase in the value of farm real estate assets. Farm sector debt is forecast to increase by $28.3 billion (5.0 percent) to $591.8 billion in 2025. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to remain stable at 13.4 percent in 2025. Working capital is forecast to increase 15.2 percent in 2025 compared to 2024.
Median Income of Farm Operator Households Forecast to Increase in 2025
Median total farm household income increased to $102,748 in 2024, a 4.9 percent (2.3 percent after inflation) increase from 2023. It is forecast to reach $109,515 in 2025 with an increase of 6.6 percent (3.7 percent after inflation) relative to 2024.
Farm households typically receive income from farm and off-farm sources. Median farm income earned by farm households was -$1,830 in 2024 and is forecast to increase to -$1,189 in 2025. Many farm households primarily rely on off-farm income. Median off-farm income was $86,900 in 2024, an increase of 8.8 percent (6.1 percent after inflation) from 2023. In 2025, median off-farm income is forecast to increase by a further 3.4 percent (0.6 percent after inflation) to $89,881. Since farm and off-farm income are not distributed identically for every farm, median total income will generally not equal the sum of median off-farm and median farm income.
Sources: USDA Economic Research Service, NAFB News Service
