The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) says the production of corn has become “unprofitable” now that corn prices have dropped about 50 percent since hitting a peak in 2022. However, the cost of production has declined only modestly during that same period.
NCGA says the outlook for 2026 is even worse, with the forecast for lower corn prices and rising costs.
The average cost to grow corn has dropped just 3 percent from 2022 to 2025 while corn prices have dropped more than 50 percent since 2022.
The average total cost to grow an acre of corn in the United States jumped 26 percent from 2021 to 2022, to a record high of $928 per acre. This notable increase deviated from the steady upward trend from the mid-1990s through 2021. Since that peak in 2022, costs have dropped only slightly. The average cost to grow an acre of corn in 2025 is $897 per acre, only 3.3% lower than the 2022 peak.
This is particularly problematic for farmers trying to cash flow high production costs while the corn price has tanked. The nearby futures contract for corn topped $8 per bushel in 2022 and is currently well below $4 per bushel.
“Even with higher-than-expected yields, the average farmer cannot yield enough to avoid significant negative profit margins this year,” according to NGCA.
USDA raised their forecast corn yield for 2025 from 181 bushels per acre to 188.8 bushels per acre in their August report, which, if realized, would be the largest crop on record by far. Using the forecast $897 average cost per acre to grow corn, the average breakeven price for corn is $4.75 per bushel. The increased yield projection reduces the average cost per bushel from what was a higher breakeven at $4.96 per bushel with a 181 bushel per acre yield projection.
But USDA also decreased the forecast for market-year average farm price, the average price farmers will receive for the 2025 corn crop from $4.20 to $3.90 per bushel. A farmer with an average cost of production who receives the expected average price is facing an $0.85 per bushel loss, according to NCGA.
The September (December) corn futures price represents the price for corn delivered in September (December). These contracts reflect the market’s expectations of the price of corn from the upcoming harvest delivered in the coming months. The September (December) contract has recently traded around $3.80 ($4.00) per bushel – in line with the $3.90 market year average price USDA is currently projecting. The price the farmer receives is based on the contract price for the delivery month and a basis adjustment that reflects the local market.
“Rising production costs combined with sharply declining corn prices have created significant financial challenges for U.S. corn growers, leading to sustained negative profit margins. Despite some impressive yield prospects, the economic outlook remains bleak due to unfavorable price and cost trends,” said NGCA.
Source: National Corn Growers Association.
