Harvest Forecast: Harvest Window Opening Up Second Half of the Week

Much colder air has invaded MI, and we have several threats of precipitation in the next week. However, we do see a much better harvest window open up the second half of this coming week and then through the rest of the extended period.

Saturday is cool over the state with clouds increasing late. Our next batch of moisture rolls in for Sunday, rain potential of a few hundredths to .7”. The biggest rains will be coming just off Lake Michigan into the western edge of the state. Then action loses its punch and moisture relatively quickly. Still, we see this interrupting drying potential as we finish the weekend. Another quick push of cool air follows that system for early Monday morning. We will end up with a mix of clouds and sun for Monday and Tuesday as temps warm just a bit, and moderate dry down

On Wednesday, we are tracking low pressure moving from the Canadian prairies across far northern MN, Lake Superior and northern WI, and MI. The low actually moves across the thumb of MI Wednesday afternoon. This fast moving little low will trigger showers to over most of the state. Totals will be a few hundredths to a tenth or two at a minimum, but can be over half an inch again in parts of the northern thumb and near lake Michigan, where the cooler air mass change is able to feed off extra available moisture. Precipitation coverage for Wednesday will be 80%.

We finish the week and weekend with another surge of temps to the upside after a cool Wednesday and early Thursday AM. We should see partly to mostly sunny for Thursday forward. We should be well above normal next weekend with excellent drying and evaporation. No rain expected. This continues into Monday the 12^th. The map below shows total rain potential for the next 10 days. Pretty much all of this comes on a combo of the Sunday and Wednesday events.

Extended Period:

The extended 11-16 day forecast period starts with a continuation of the pattern at the end of the 10 day…we stay warm and dry likely from the 13^th through the 16^th. However, around the 13^th we are starting to watch a system try and develop over the western US in the central Rockies. Any weather system that develops in the mountains has a difficult road to move along to end up bringing moisture here. However, we will be watching to see if it is able to exit the Rockies with any moisture or pressure gradient intact in the central plains. If it can, that may signal a threat of moisture closer to the 17^th or 18^th as we finish the extended period. However, we have low odds of that at this time. The extended period looks good for full harvest progress over Michigan.

Weeks 3 & 4:

Warmer than normal and drier than normal patterns continue through the end of the month. We see no significant rain makers in either week three or four. That is not to say it wont rain. However, any moisture we see moving through will be similar to what we have in the near term forecast…a few hundredths to few tenths, perhaps triggering a slight pause in harvest activity, but then resuming quickly.

Week 3

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)