Planting Forecast: Drier Weather Coming After ‘Significant’ System Comes Through Michigan

Michigan dodging a few bullets nearby, as the weekend moisture definitely focuses more to our south. However, we still have a significant front to work through at midweek, and some parts of Southern Lower Michigan will even get some offshoot nearby moisture from the weekend moisture in Indiana.

Areas south of I-94 saw good moisture to start the weekend, and lesser totals were seen up to I-96. We are looking for precipitation free weather to be back for Sunday and Monday, but we will have plenty of clouds to contend with. Drying will be marginal…as temps stay a bit on the cooler side here, with warmer air pooling farther south. Tuesday clouds are thicker statewide, and we can’t rule out a few scattered showers drifting across Michigan from W and NW areas down to the SE. We put coverage at 60% over MI with moisture totals at a tenth or two max…this is not serious moisture, but we definitely can not call Tuesday dry at this time.

Wednesday brings a strong frontal complex the Eastern Corn Belt. We see rain slipping up into MI from the southwest. Through the day Wednesday and a good chunk of Thursday we wills be showers, and we can’t rule out thunderstorms. Rain totals can be from .5” to 1.5”, depending on thunderstorms. The other factor that is boosting our rain totals a bit is the duration of rain. The system exits southern areas faster, but we have plenty of wrap around moisture in here as the low slowly moves into eastern Ontario and Quebec. That moisture, strung out through Thursday, will keep us looking at slightly higher totals. The map below shows rain potential for the system.

MAT big planting map

Friday, we flip the calendar into May, and we also seem to flip the pattern to a much drier one. WE see partly to mostly sunny skies Friday through next weekend to finish the 10 day period. Temps will climb quickly, and we should be normal to above normal on temps. Evaporation will be excellent, nearing a max of .25”-.3” per day, and if we can add any wind, we will move even more moisture out of the soil profile.

Extended Period:

The extended 11-16 day forecast period continues the dry stretch. In fact, we think it is possible to make it all the way through the period with no moisture, so that we could be fully or at least mostly dry from the 1st all the way through the 10th. In any case, we see partly to mostly sunny skies for Monday the 4th through Thursday the 7th. A few more clouds arrive for Friday the 8th and Saturday the 9th. If we have any concern about moisture at all, it would be for Friday the 8th with the potential for a shower or two. But the threat looks low at the moment, and with a dry atmosphere and dry pattern for multiple days leading up to the threat…it has some hurdles to overcome to actually produce widespread precipitation. Still, we are watching that day close. We go back to drier weather for Sunday the 10th. Temps for the extended period will be normal to above.

Weeks 3 & 4:

Week three looks to be a continuation of what we see in our 11-16 day forecast pattern…mostly dry. That means our planting window has a good chance of extending. Temps in week 3 are not all that impressive, but not cold by any means. Call them near normal. In week 4, we see an increase in moisture potential, with 2 fronts likely, brining showers and potential for thunderstorms. Precip can be above normal, but we will be warm too, with above normal temps…this is what is pushing us toward the thought of more thunderstorms in week 4.

Week 3

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

MAT Week 3 Precip

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)

MAT Week 3 Temp

Week 4

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

MAT Week 4 Precip

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)

MAT Week 4 Temp



Recommended Posts