The USDA will issue its Acreage Report on Thursday, June 30. Ben Kasch with Bower Trading says the markets will be watching the report very closely.
“It seems like [the USDA doesn’t] get it dialed in on what the acreage really is until much later, possibly even the January report,” according to Kasch. “That getting said, the markets are going to watch it closely. We have had a late go at planting here, particularly in the northern parts of the Midwest, up in Minnesota, South Dakota, and eastern North Dakota, so it’s gonna be hard to dial in. I think the markets are having trouble dialing in on what that report is going to say.”
Kasch says the markets don’t know what to expect because some spring planting plans may have changed at the last minute.
“Are we going to get a very accurate number from that report? Talking to my clients here, we may see more corn acres through these I-states. We had good planting weather in Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, and Illinois. For the most part, price was great and still is pretty good. I think corn did buy some acres down here in the heart of the Midwest. Now, up in the northern areas, we could see a switch to spring wheat, also to soybeans. We struggled to get any of those crops in, but I think they may have shifted away because their windows are so tight up there.
“I think the acres are probably gonna be a lot closer to what we already had in March because of those shifts, with fewer corn acres up north and more corn acres in the heart of the Midwest. I think the acreage number will probably be closer to that March planting intentions report that we’ve seen,” according to Kasch.
He adds that the level of uncertainty heading into this year’s acreage report is unprecedented.
“I think it’s uncharted territory,” says Kasch. “I mean, we’re at very elevated levels. There’s a lot of profitability in a lot of different crops at this point. Input costs get factored into a lot of this decision-making all the time I mean, every year. But, even more important, is definitely a lot more risk associated as far as producers this year than we’ve seen in years past here, because of the levels that we’re seeing in prices, fuel, you know, input costs, fertilizer, chemicals, and all that. if you’re on any lower-producing ground, there’s a lot of alternatives out there, so I think it’s gonna be very difficult to dial in in this year.”
Kasch says the ideal Acreage Report will show that U.S. farmers maximized their number of available acres for planting this spring.
“I think it would be the total crop acres of what got planted – if we got a low Prevent-Plant. Right now, the prices are great, so why wouldn’t you keep the planter rolling instead of taking Prevent-Plant money? I mean, there’s a lot of still good potential for revenue here, so I think the good news would be that we planted a lot of acres combined, whether it be corn beans, wheat, rice, cotton, we need all these commodities given the price of the market screaming that we need. We need to get every acre planted that we can here, so I think that’d be the good news,” says Kasch.
Click BELOW to hear C.J. Miller’s news report on the uncertainty in the grain markets ahead of the USDA’s Acreage Report being released on Thursday, June 30.