A spectacular start to our harvest forecast this weekend as we see sunny, warm and dry conditions for Saturday and Sunday. There is a significant weather system coming together in the northern plains and upper Midwest over the weekend, but right now it looks to move more north than east. That means a large part of MI will see a harvest window extend into the first part of next week as well – But, not all of the state.
Scattered showers develop overnight Sunday night through Monday over the UP and Lake Michigan. That will mean we have to watch for scattered showers along the eastern shoreline of Lake Michigan along with the IP in the Sunday night through Monday morning midday time frame. Moisture totals will not be big, but we won’t be seeing excellent drying either. Moisture totals will be a few hundredths to half an inch, coverage at 60%. The rest of the state will be partly sunny and dry, but clouds will keep a bit of a lid on temps.
Fully sunny statewide on Tuesday. Then Wednesday we see our next significant frontal complex lifting up from the southwest. This will bring rain to almost all of Lower MI and the eastern third of the UP. Rain totals will be .1”-.75” with coverage at 90% in the mentioned areas. The map below shows rain totals combined from the early week event in the west and then the Wednesday event for the state.
We go dry for Thursday into the weekend. Temps stay mild. WE should see partly to mostly sunny skies through Monday the 31st, making another decent window for harvest.
The extended period looks dry to start, with sunshine in control tuesday November 1 on through Thursday. A cold front arrives late that week on the 4th bringing .25”-1” rain potential with 90% coverage. The heavier moisture may skew to the southern half of the state, which is probably a good think given OH river levels. We are dry behind the front for the 5th, 6th and 7th, with temps staying above normal still to finish out the period.
Weeks 3 & 4:
Near normal precipitation in weeks 3 and 4, which means we likely see similar conditions to our extended forecast period with 1 system or front coming through each week. Temps will be above to well above normal right on through late November.
Week 3 Precipitation v. Normal:
Week 3 Temps v. Normal:
Week 4 Precipitation v. Normal:
Week 4 Temps v. Normal: