Excessive rain in the forecast again as we move forward this week, particularly over the southern half of lower Michigan. We continue to see no worthwhile string of multi-day dry windows, meaning we will have to pop in and out with minor windows to work with for harvest.
Saturday will be rain free in all areas of the state. Temps will be warmer than how we finished the week but will not be “warm” by any stretch. Clouds build overnight in southern IN and the Ohio River valley, but we likely do not see any rain into lower Michigan until after sunrise Sunday. From there, rain advances north, and then continues through Monday Right now, an easy rain range is 1”-2” and we think 2”-2.5” is doable in many spots from I-96 South. The northern part of the state will likely see less rain, but we wont rule out a few hundredths to half an inch with 30% coverage. The map below shows moisture potential from Sunday early morning through Monday night. Feel free to hope and pray this forecast is wrong…we are keeping our hopes that way anyway.
We should be rain free with a mix of clouds and sun Tuesday and start with some sun Wednesday before clouds build again. Wednesday night showers come back with a cold front advancing from the west. Rain and thunderstorms will be around through Thursday, and then the low stagnates over the eastern corn belt, keeping wrap around clouds and showers around through Friday and even early Saturday. The combination of frontal rains and wrap around moisture likely brings at least half to 1” additional to finish the week and there is no good look for drying either, even if we miss out on most of the wrap around showers.
We should be rain free for Halloween on Sunday the 31st and stay that way through November 1. However, clouds will be a dominant feature, meaning we still don’t dry very quickly.
The wetter, colder pattern is now changing our outlook for early November. We look for a threat of showers bringing up to .6” for November 3rd, and then another shot of rain coming up from the SW for late November 5th into the 6th. Rain totals there can be up to half an inch. Temps look to be below normal for most of the extended period.
Weeks 3 & 4:
Week three (week ending November 14) will be above normal for precipitation as we see several larger threats of rain coming across the corn belt in general. Week 4 turns a little drier, with near to slightly below precipitation expected. As far as temps go, we remain above normal for week three, but see a significant cool down for week 4, with temps near to slightly below normal on average. ear normal moisture in weeks 3 and 4, meaning we see chance of showers both weeks. Tough to see good drying into mid-November with that outlook