Colder air is on the way into MI for a large part of this harvest forecast window. But we are also looking at a drier set up, with most of our next 10 days being devoid of major frontal or system precipitation. The only hiccups will be cold air “wringing” a little moisture out of the atmosphere, particularly near the lake shores.
Rain is done in the short term for the start of our harvest forecast window on Saturday. We still are seeing some decent clouds rotating on the backside of the low farther east. While we won’t rule out a lingering shower in the far eastern areas of the Thumb and southeast MI, most of the state will be rain free. Clouds may not break up until mid to late afternoon in many areas, but there will be some sun. Better sun potential will be found the farther west you go, and up in the UP. Colder air will start to sag through MI Sunday. We still end up with temps near normal, but as that cold, Canadian air works south, we have to also keep an eye out for a few scattered showers near the south shore of Lake Superior and the eastern short of Lake Michigan. Any showers that pop up in those areas Sunday will NOT have much of a run inland.
Colder air tightens its grip in the state through We will be partly sunny Monday through Friday in all inland areas, with only threats of pop up showers again near the south shore of Superior, and not so much in along the Lake Michigan shoreline. Cold air means we do not have excellent evaporation, but full good sunshine means we can still overcome and see some decent drying. We will also have hard frost and freeze conditions multiple times through the week. next week. Temps will be below normal Monday through Friday. This should be the best opportunity for multiple days back to back rain free, useable for field work, in quite a while. The map at right shows temps compared to normal for Monday through Friday of next week.
[the_ad id=”100303″]
Temps moderate next weekend, but we remain dry over the state, and will push the open window for harvest through next weekend.
Extended Period:
While the next 10 days look pretty good, the jury is out on the extended 11-16 day window. Models stand in stark disagreement with each other for the extended period. One model brings a very wet pattern back following next weekend, and others stay dry. To us, it we feel that the outcome depends on where cold air retreats to. If the cold air of next week pulls back up all the way into Canada, that will likely allow system development in the SW US, which will swing northeast riding strong flow off of the Gulf of Mexico. IF the cold air does not retreat as far north, the active precipitation track will stay farther to our south. So, at this time we are trending a bit cooler for the extended period and thus drier…but would urge folks not to count on a mostly dry 10 day window extending all the way through Nov 16. We think at least one system is likely to develop the second half of our extended period, and we are watching closely for something sooner.
Weeks 3 & 4:
Week three is trending wetter with normal to above normal precipitation through the 21st, and week four is a little drier with normal to slightly below normal precipitation through the 28th. We warm in the later part of the forecast with week three temps well above normal, but cool off a bit for week four, as temps are only a degree or two on average above normal. See maps below. The colder air will be more of a story nearby for our forecast for next week and the week following.
Week 3 Precipitation and Temps
Week 4 precipitation and temps
