A strong upper level low works out of the Upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes this weekend and will be quickly followed by a system we would call a “clipper” if it were later in the winter. The result will be plenty of clouds around through the weekend, and strong west winds through the weekend. Those west winds have increased our potential for lake effect precipitation. Away from the lake shores, the threat of moisture is lower for Saturday, but that clipper system Sunday gets everyone a chance at a few tenths of moisture. We believe we will see most of that threat come as liquid, but will not rule out wet snow, especially in overnight period and the farther north you go. The cold air is significant and can easily produce some snow (the lake effect just amplifies that). Temps will be a good 20-25 degrees colder this weekend and early next week than what we were seeing midweek this past week. That colder air means we dry much slower…so for remaining harvest we absolutely need to be hope for as little moisture/precipitation as possible.
We should be precipitation free for most of Michigan for Monday and Tuesday. Monday stays chilly, and winds should be west/northwest in that time frame, so lake effect clouds at least will be around. Tuesday winds switch to the SW, and we see some nice warming and good sun. Overnight Tuesday night a cold front slides through the state, but we see little to no moisture from it. Temps just drop by a good 10-20 degrees from Tuesday highs for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. We won’t rule out a little lake effect cloudy cover and minor moisture along the Lake Superior shoreline in the UP Thursday into early Friday.
Saturday likely is not quite as cold, and then a front swings through overnight Saturday night into early Sunday. That front brings moisture potential of .25” or less over 60% of the state, focusing mostly on the western half of Lower MI and far eastern areas of the UP. Clearly, we are looking for some lake enhancement there, and that explains the lack of moisture farther east. That system brings in leg three of cooler air. We are using an analogy of a roller coaster ride to explain this patter for the entirety of the eastern corn belt. Think of it as a roller coaster, with less high hills and deeper valleys for our temperature run over the next 10 days. The map shows temps compared to normal over the next 10 days.
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Extended Period:
The extended period remains mostly dry, but cold. Temps will stay below normal, and we do not see any significant surges in daytime highs through the week of Thanksgiving. That being said, we should see good sun every day and we can coble together net drying, given the lack of moisture. A cold front materializes the closer we get to the extended period around Sunday the 28th. That actually develops as warmer air surges northward, creating the opportunity to wring some moisture out of the front as it passes through…but still probably less than .25”, and we wilk skew coverage to 50% with the majority over the southern half to two thirds of Lower MI.
Weeks 3 & 4:
Precipitation for both weeks is near normal. Temps will be well below normal for week three as we start of December, and slightly below normal for week four
