Harvest Weather Forecast: 10-Day Forecast to be Sunny, Warm and Mostly Dry

We have an excellent harvest forecast this week. We start things off with a little bit of moisture on Saturday as a cool front (a relatively fast moving one at that) sweeps through the Great Lakes and eastern corn belt. That front brings moisture that will total a few hundredths to no more than .4” over 75% of the state, ending early Saturday afternoon. We clear out Saturday evening and overnight.

The rest of the 10 day forecast window is mostly sunny, warm and mostly dry strong high pressure builds in over the eastern corn belt and acts like a large block in flow of any front/action from the west. Actually, moisture develops on the backside of this strong surface high at midweek next week, and it circulates up the backside and over the top through the Upper Midwest, into Canada, Lake Superior and a few parts of the UP. Remember that last part of the statement, we will get there in a bit. For most of MI, and pretty much all of the Lower Peninsula. from this Sunday through early next week (week of the 4^th) temps will be above normal, evaporation at maximum every day, low humidity and we should even put in some decent south and west breezes at times.

We see no hindrance in harvest Sunday forward, and the only hurdle will relate to how much rain specific areas got this past week. Those with only an inch or two will likely see action ramp up in the fields Monday, while areas that got heavier totals (3-4-5” or more) will be several days behind that. Still, drying will be swift. The map left shows average temperature vs. normal late this week. Excellent harvest potential here. Now, a brief “asterisk”: the circulation of moisture and clouds around the backside of this high this coming week may trip a few showers in the UP and far northern lower Michigan Friday and Friday night, and again next Monday. But, moisture will be limited to only those areas at those times.

Extended Period:

The extended 11-16 day forecast window looks mostly dry too. We see little to no rain potential through Thursday October 7, with the only exception being a few spits and sprinkles over the northern quarter of Lower MI on Wednesday the 6^th…again associated with that wrap around moisture on the backside of the then weakening high. . Friday the 8th, we may see a few “hit and miss” over Lower MI, but only 30% coverage and totals under .25”. Showers roll into the state then for Friday night through early Sunday the 10^th with the chance for .25”-.75” and 75% coverage.

Weeks 3 & 4:

Not many problems or issues for harvest coming in the week 3 or week 4 forecast either. We likely see that moisture that is setting up just northwest of the region next Sunday the 10^th slide down into the eastern corn belt early in the week of the 11^th, with showers the most likely result. That will put moisture for week 3 near normal, but not excessive. Temps will be well above normal region wide. For week 4 we swing back very dry and could be looking at a good 5-7 day rain free stretch again, allowing for good harvest progression. Temps are above normal that week too to nearly finish out the month.

Week 3

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)