Harvest Forecast: Get Ready for Rain, Dropping Temperatures

Harvest Forecast: Get Ready for Rain, Dropping Temperatures

michigan harvest templateMichigan matches up with a large part of the eastern Corn Belt for this weeks harvest forecast. We have much warmer air in to off the period, as we are at normal to above normal levels for the weekend and Monday. However, on Monday we have a strong front and powerful low that will work through bringing rain and dropping temps.

We are partly to mostly sunny for Saturday and Sunday mostly sunny. Clouds increase quickly on Monday. Rain develops in western Michigan in the morning and then moves through the rest of the state through the rest of the day and overnight. Action will be fully gone by shortly after midnight Monday night. However, we continue to see the strong low trail the front by a good little bit. This likely keeps plenty of clouds around for Tuesday, and we can’t even rule out some minor precipitation (wet snow in far northern Michigan, but the rest of us more likely to see spits and sprinkles than anything else). With the extended cloud cover and threat of minor additional moisture, we look for totals 2 day rain amounts to be .3”-1” for the event with coverage at 100% of the state. The map below shows even totals we expect across the state.

Dry Wednesday and Thursday. It will be chilly Tuesday, temps moderate Wednesday, and then we should be warmer Thursday ahead of our next front.

That front arrives next Friday, and brings potential for .25”-.75”. Timing is going to be the most uncertain thing with that front. It likely comes late in the day and lingers into early Saturday. However, the threat for a longer, drawn out precipitation event seems to be waning. We likely turn drier with sunshine returning by Sunday.

MAT big forecast

Extended Period:

The up and down of temps continues in the extended period. We should be mostly sunny and a little mild for Monday the 28th, but then a sharp push of cold air comes for Tuesday the 29th. There is a little bit of moisture that may come through with the colder air, and if it holds together, there is the potential for .1”-.4” of moisture, and some of that can come overnight in the form of wet snow over the northern third of the state. The rest of the extended period through November 3 will feature clouds and sun, but temps below normal.

Weeks 3 & 4:

Wetter week 3 as we expect another bigger system to develop, near normal for week 4. Temps near normal through the period…so not as warm as we have been. We expect the volatile swings we start to see emerge the next 2 weeks to continue through week 3 and 4, giving an average overall outcome, but it will feel very “un-normal” as we bounce around.

Week 3

Precipitation, week ending November 9 (green: above normal, brown: below)MAT week 3 precip

Temperature, Week ending November 9 (orange: above normal, blue: below)
MAT week 3 temp

Week 4

Precipitation, Week ending November 16 (green: above normal, brown: below)MAT week 4 precip

Temperature, Week ending November 16 (orange: above normal, blue: below)MAT week 4 tempGreenStone