We have a bit of a dry window here in the short haul part of our harvest forecast. We should be dry all weekend as rain stalls out farther south over IN and OH. We may see some offshoot clouds up here, but no new precipitation. We stay dry Monday and early Tuesday, with temps trying to moderate some on Monday.
Our next good weather system arrives Tuesday midday to afternoon and moisture continues overnight through Wednesday morning. We likely see rain to start, but the low tracks right across Michigan and we expect significant wrap around moisture in the cold sector too. This means we are looking for rains of up to half an inch and accumulating snows to follow, mostly along the western side and northern half of the state. However, looking at all the moisture combined, we can say look for .4”-1.5” of liquid equivalent over the state for the event. We see precipitation wind down Wednesday midday
We start to clear Wednesday afternoon, and Thanksgiving Day turns out partly to mostly sunny. Temps will moderate thanksgiving afternoon.
The rest of the week shows a mix of clouds and sun, and honestly, we expect more cloud than sun. We can’t rule out scattered light rain or snow showers Friday the 29th, and then again on Sunday the 1st. However, moisture looks minor, and coverage widely spread. The map shows cumulative liquid equivalent precipitation through next Monday.
For the extended window we are seeing colder air trying to assert itself next week We can’t rule out clouds and some light snow from Tuesday afternoon into the evening (12/3), and then another chance of light rain or light snow Saturday the 7th with minor moisture content, but 80% coverage. The rest of the period looks chilly with clouds and at least some sun, but not a dominant amount of clear sky.
Weeks 3 & 4:
Cold pattern that tries to take root in the 11-16 day period solidifies in week 3. Temps look to be below normal, but we don’t see a lot of heavy moisture coming with the cold. Flurries and lake effect snows will be the most likely precipitation triggers. Week 4 shows temps moderating a bit, getting back to normal, But the moderating temps allow more moisture to lift in from the south and west. This could set up to be a more snowy look the week ahead of Christmas.
Precipitation, week ending December 14 (green: above normal, brown: below)
Temperature, Week ending December 14 (orange: above normal, blue: below)
Precipitation, Week ending December 21 (green: above normal, brown: below)
Temperature, Week ending December 21 (orange: above normal, blue: below)