A new strain of African Swine Fever in China is putting a damper on the U.S. soybean market.
“I think without the swine fever talk we probably see another $0.50 on soybeans right now,” says market analyst John Zanker with Risk Management Commodities.
He adds, “After losing 40 percent of their hog herd the first time around, I think that it’s easy to be scared. Now, I think they’re in a much better position to handle it this time. There have been a lot of hogs move into the big mega farms, the well managed farms, versus the smaller single producer. So, I think they’re much better to handle it. I think this variant is less deadly.”
While this new strain appears to be less lethal, reports from China suggest that this new strain is also more difficult to detect.
Zanker says this talk of ASF is the only thing really weighing down the soybean market.
“Nothing we’ve seen so far would lead us to believe that the Chinese have backed off their bean purchases. A whole lot of boats are sitting in the Brazilian harbors and they’re being moved out, and they’re still shipping soybeans out of the U. S. to China. So, they’re still hungry, but it’s a worry, it’s a concern. It’s really about the only bearish factor we see in the soybean market.”
