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Michigan is experiencing its driest spring in 20 years. In the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, all of the Lower Peninsula and half of the Upper Peninsula are experiencing varying forms of drought. According to Jeff Andresen, Michigan’s state climatologist, there’s a couple factors that set this up.
“There are some areas in the southern lower that actually had been drier than normal all the way back to late last summer or early last fall,” he said. “The departures from normal last fall and in the winter weren’t huge, but it was still below the normal. The most intense dryness and most of the impacts we see now are the result of much drier than normal conditions generally since late February. We typically don’t see extended periods like that where we’re below normal for so long—we usually get some kind of rebound, but that hasn’t happened this year.”
The soil simply hasn’t had an opportunity to recharge. 1992 was the last year that saw the same level of dryness. Andresen said the 1980s were the last time there were several years of this pattern.
“We found 1984, 1986, 1987 and 1988 which is one of the most severe droughts in the Midwest of the last century,” he said. “Those were unusual years because the drought came early in the season.”
Most classic droughts in Michigan occur in the center or latter part of the growing season. Over the last few decades, Andresen has noticed the trend of Michigan getting wetter.
“It’s arguably the most significant trend in climate that we have, and it’s true in virtually every season but especially in the spring,” said Andresen. “Part of this is perception—think about 2019 which was a very difficult year. We had the fourth wettest spring on record and that was followed by the second wettest fall. I think part of it is psychological—the fact that we have been dealing with too much water rather than too little, and here we have a season where the rainfall is turned off.”
The majority of the state experienced rain this week, but there are still large deficits of moisture. Andresen is optimistic there will be more chances for precipitation, but the current deficiency is greater than six inches.
“Our risk of running out of water and then having problems is significantly greater than it typically is,” said Andresen. “It means we’re going to have to have normal, maybe even above normal precipitation for a long period during the growing season to keep potentials where we would like them to be.”
Andresen is keeping an eye on the medium-range forecast. That’s showing a return to warmer weather after Memorial Day, but drier than normal conditions return.