Planting Forecast: Small Window Opens as Storms Move in at Midweek

Temps are looking to recover as we move forward through this planting forecast. The first step in moderating temps comes this weekend. This will be a subtle move, just adding a few degrees from Friday. However, we also see variable sky conditions Saturday as well, with a few scattered showers developing over the UP and far northern Lower Michigan, as well as in southern tier counties of the state. Generally, moisture is not impressive for Saturday, with a few hundredths to .25” the most likely totals. Sunday will be colder behind this little wave, but not as cold as last week. We turn out mostly sunny for Sunday with decent evaporation starting.

Monday and Tuesday feature a dramatic push higher in temps. We will be above normal Monday and well above normal Tuesday with strong southwest winds. This will promote good drying both days over most of lower Michigan, but the warmer airmass also brings a few clouds to the northern half of the state, and showers will plague the UP. In areas where we see showers, the UP can see .25” or less. Again, lower MI escapes that, and sees good drying.  Temps Tuesday will run from 70s to mid to at least lower 80s. This is window number 1 for planting that we see for lower MI

Now, dramatic warming at this time of year, especially following on the heels of significant airmass change usually produces instability. This will be no different. That instability brings scattered showers and a few thunderstorms next Wednesday ahead of a cold front that comes Thursday. That front also brings showers and storms. Two day rain totals look at this point to be .5” to 2” with coverage at 100% of Lower MI, as shown on the map below. This will be a significant rain event. The biggest threat will come overnight Wednesday night through Thursday midday. Areas farther south (over IN) and west (WI, IL) will see higher rain totals with strong to severe thunderstorms. We are not projecting any severe weather in MI from this frontal passage.

Behind the front, we move into a dry period to finish the 10 day window, with at least 5 straight dry days through Monday the 3^rd. Temps stay warm at normally to above normal levels to start, but may pull back toward the 1^st and 2^nd.  Evaporation will be at a near maximum for those days. We will see opportunity to return to the field to plant in that stretch, but how soon will depend on each of your respective rain totals from the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe.

Extended Period

We extend that dry window at least 2 more days in the 11-15 day period. The next front we need to pay attention to comes together overnight Wednesday the 5^th through early Thursday the 6^th. Rain totals look manageable, at .25”-.75” with coverage at 80%. We return to partly sunny skies for Thursday afternoon through Friday, and temps stay warm. We can’t rule out showers and storms returning with a strong front to end the extended window for Saturday the 8^th and Sunday the 9^th. Preliminary looks suggest half to 1” potential. 

Weeks 3 & 4:

We continue to see an active precipitation pattern for week 3, but dry down for week 4. 2 systems with half inch potential will work through the area in week 3, but we may see .25” or less for week 4. Temps will be above normal both weeks, averaging 1-2 degrees above normal for the weekly averages each week.

Week 3

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)

Week 4

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)